#263 “Trump’s LNG Buddies – How a US company is hijacking the EU gas market” (English)

00:00:00: What's up, everybody?

00:00:01: It is the two hundred and sixty-third edition of Europe Calling.

00:00:05: I'd particularly like to welcome our guest joining us today from The United States in Germany And everyone else not excluding anybody here Happy To Have You.

00:00:16: My name is Maximilian Friesen, the Managing Director Of Europe Calling.

00:00:19: I'll be hosting this evening's programme.

00:00:21: So it all about natural gas.

00:00:24: When a few weeks ago Andy Georgiou Got in touch, and he asked if we should do something together on a company called Windsor Global.

00:00:33: I was initially a little bit of a loss then remembered what it is about And explained to me that all changed out.

00:00:42: so today We're hosting this exciting webinar together which will delve deeply into US European gas training Really looking forward to learning a great deal.

00:00:52: Thank you Andy.

00:00:53: Great corporation.

00:00:55: Yeah, you never stop learning even as a facilitator.

00:00:59: Now before we start a few housekeeping announcements.

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00:01:45: This is the only way we could answer questions that interest at you.

00:01:49: That would be exciting.

00:01:50: We have more than one thousand registrations after all.

00:01:54: Thanks very much.

00:01:54: my colleague Amelie was helping With her questions behind us.

00:02:00: So as always, your calling will be recorded and then posted online on YouTube.

00:02:04: And there's a podcast.

00:02:05: so please bear this in mind when asking questions.

00:02:07: but it's all about housekeeping announcements.

00:02:12: First welcome is our first guest Justin McCoolcar who was an investigative journalist head of communications at the US non-governmental organization Oilfield Witness And regular listeners to Europe Calling will already be familiar with Justin, because last year we hosted a fascinating webinar on methane emissions from oil and gas production in the US.

00:02:36: He knows the ins-and-outs of key players in this sector including Wenscher Global.

00:02:41: that's why you're really looking forward your talk opening this Webinar on that topic.

00:02:48: Justin, great to have you and you are at the floor!

00:02:52: Alright thanks for having me.

00:02:54: Have I shared?

00:02:56: See if i can share my desktop.

00:03:00: Oh this one should do it, just a second!

00:03:13: So uh...I'm going to be talking today about the finances of Venture Global and LNG but as Max Millian mentioned also my organization does a lot of work on methane emissions and climate change And we've looked at the LNG exports of US more than most organizations.

00:03:32: As we are seeing record heat hit Europe and India in lots of places to the world right now, I think it's critical to keep in mind that methane... LNG is liquefied methane!

00:03:43: The science is very clear that the most important thing we can do to address rapid warming Is reduce methane emissions from oil or gas.

00:03:52: A lot of them come from LNG But today I want to talk about energy security and finances, the relationship between venture global and Trump administration.

00:04:03: And so this morning there was a headline that says European gas rises on U.S.-Iran uncertainties LNG disruptions.

00:04:11: So i think we're all learning about the energy security issues.

00:04:14: when you are importing your LNG for country.

00:04:20: This is just an ongoing issue but a reality of if you were going to rely on imported LNG, these types of disruptions are gonna be part of that.

00:04:32: This quote is from the CEO of Total and he's at the total as a multinational oil and gas company based in EU And here He was talking about Venture global and they're the finances of venture global.

00:04:48: And saying to a colleague, what is the trick?

00:04:51: Because Venture Global is selling their LNG more cheaply than other companies which you know Is one of the reasons why there are moving lots of volumes.

00:04:59: but I think as we move through this whole discussion today Uh i think it's good to remember that phrase like What is the Trick Like?

00:05:06: what is actually going on here?

00:05:08: Why why is his company being successful and what does The future look like?

00:05:11: uh so in, uh... twenty-twenty four or twenty three I guess when Trump was running for reelection.

00:05:22: He called a meeting and got the heads of major oil & gas companies into U.S together And he told them that if they gave him a billion dollars he would basically get rid off all environmental regulations that they didn't like also actively work against adoption renewable energy And unfortunately, that was a good deal for them.

00:05:48: Since despite always talking about US energy being clean their ideal scenario is not having any regulations and so they handed over the money.

00:06:03: But venture was at that meeting in that article about that meeting the first CEO mentioned with Mike sable.

00:06:08: So we're dealing with a company here who one of their main competitive advantages is they have a direct line to the Trump White House.

00:06:16: and When we think about again thinking how climate change The last thing.

00:06:20: We should be doing is loosening the regulations on the fossil fuel industry, but there was another meeting after trump was reelected and the two founders of Venture Global had another meeting in The White House.

00:06:36: And this was where, but what happened after that meeting?

00:06:42: Was they bought more of their own stock?

00:06:46: now traditionally in financial circles if you meet with a top regulator and then leave that meeting and buy a lot of your own stock before the public is aware And that is what one US senator had asked about, well this looks a lot like insider trading.

00:07:06: So I think this another example of where they're directly tied to the White House and I would suggest if you are unsure... The Trump administration has not only gotten rid of environmental regulations around methane pretty much every toxin comes out industry in

00:07:25: U.S.,

00:07:26: But insider trading used to be illegal in this country.

00:07:31: In your spare time, if you do a web search for Insider Trading Donald Trump You will get a lot of information To show that basically the president is also profiting from insider trading.

00:07:43: So we're an environment where people like This who are close with The President have A distinct advantage Are not being held accountable For things That We Used to Consider Crimes.

00:07:53: Venture Global Is Also.

00:07:55: This is an interesting situation.

00:07:57: They're in legal battles with their own customers.

00:08:01: So the way LNG contracts typically work, they were signed for about twenty years and so Venture Global had contracts for its new facility in Louisiana CP-I And that was coming online becoming operational right when Ukraine war started As I'm sure you are aware of it.

00:08:22: gas prices skyrocketed then, and everyone was scrambling for gas because of the issues with Russian gas supply.

00:08:31: And so the price of LNG on the spot market if you just wanted to go out and buy it tripled or... It went up in a huge amount!

00:08:40: So what Venture Global did during this time?

00:08:43: they had contracts to start delivering LNG at an agreed upon price, which was much lower than the market rate price.

00:08:54: At that time and so they told their customers we're not really operational We're not going to honor our contract And they sold billions of dollars of LNG at much higher prices and made a lot Of money.

00:09:06: but BP and other large companies brought brought it to arbitration and said, we had contracts.

00:09:13: You didn't honor the contract And BP so far has gotten a billion dollars back.

00:09:18: But again this is when you think about a long-term business model.

00:09:22: if a company Is not honoring Contracts with its own customers.

00:09:28: It's a unique I think situation in In business.

00:09:33: Reuters reported around at that time We're learning about this arbitration That this was one of the biggest disputes in the industry history and the combined claims against venture global were five point five billion dollars, which is a significant amount of money for that company's finances.

00:09:48: And so when I was putting together these slides, I was doing some searches for some news articles and I thought this was an interesting combination because what Venture Global was doing while they're making money selling it to Ukraine... They were still a private company but then they went public through an IPO in early twenty-twenty-five.

00:10:09: The hype for this IPO was incredible.

00:10:12: It was done by the leading bank, Goldman Sachs.

00:10:15: They were talking about being the biggest energy IPO ever.

00:10:18: There are comments on how it would be valued more than BP.

00:10:21: So one company selling LNG in US is going to be bigger than BP financially.

00:10:27: As you can see from your search result that came right below.

00:10:31: it was a big flop.

00:10:32: And by March, they had wiped out thirty nine billion dollars of the value after the IPO.

00:10:37: so uh...the investors who bought into this IPO and brought in to The Hype lost a lot of money um..and So here you can see is a stock chart where at the IPO It's around twenty five dollars and these days were around thirteen dollars.

00:10:53: I will point out that if You look At This In this march April time frame Where we are still significantly at A lower price one of the executives at Venture Global, it was reported recently sold.

00:11:04: He had two million shares in the company.

00:11:06: he sold them all so and made about twenty million dollars.

00:11:10: but when your executives are cashing out uh... this new into a company where they're benefiting from the current financial environment that person should know better than anyone what the future of Venture global looks like And then took their money to cashed-out.

00:11:27: So I think thats another sign.

00:11:30: What is the trick here?

00:11:32: what's going on?

00:11:34: and I think there are a lot of financial questions that need to be answered.

00:11:38: All of that said, The two guys who were having those meetings in the White House both our worth probably around ten billion dollars.

00:11:45: today they were worth twenty four billion until the stock price crashed.

00:11:51: you know That is paper money right.

00:11:52: They haven't cashed all of that but an executive In this business Is Going To Get Rich Even when people who invested in their company, and the IPO lost half of their money.

00:12:04: So it's a very good gig to be an LNG CEO but not financially.

00:12:11: for many other people The important thing about venture going forward is they have a lot debt.

00:12:20: This has been borrowing lots of money To build these export facilities And when you look at companies, typically you would not want your debt to be a greater amount than the total market value of your company.

00:12:35: That's a warning sign and that is exactly where VentureGlobal is right now.

00:12:39: they are continuing to borrow more money.

00:12:41: so there are real questions.

00:12:44: Ventureglobal has made a lot of money in an instance during Ukraine war when prices spiked.

00:12:52: But in the regular markets and what's becoming glut of LNG that we still expect through year, twenty-thirty there is going to be a lot of L&G available.

00:13:03: It will be harder to make money and pay back that debt.

00:13:05: so they are real questions about that.

00:13:08: And when you have large public company like this You get credit rating from these credit agencies.

00:13:15: In October one of those agencies downgraded venture too negative.

00:13:19: One point was They have a lot of debt and there are questions.

00:13:23: Will they be able to pay it back?

00:13:27: This quote is from, I've never seen something like this before in an annual report but this is from Venture Global's Annual Report where their warning investors if you invest in our company and all companies do this say list all the things that could go wrong.

00:13:43: But this one is our indebtedness levels and the fact that we may be able to incur substantially more in deadness which May increase the risk created by are substantial of deadness.

00:13:53: That's someone telling you they have a lot of debt, and there's a real risk.

00:13:57: They may not be able To pay it back.

00:13:59: And so I think that their the financial position Of this company.

00:14:03: as you know for all of The reasons i've just mentioned There Are Real Questions About It?

00:14:13: contract more with this company or build stronger partnerships.

00:14:17: With it, there certainly are a lot of reasons to second guess that and just the future financial health of this company.

00:14:25: And I think one of the best indications for that is these stock prices going down right now even though gas prices around the world are high.

00:14:34: so when it looks like investors are looking at you know, it's venture global best days are behind.

00:14:45: And so I mentioned at the beginning of this talk that we really need to get off LNG because its liquid methane and all of the emissions that're helping drive rapid climate change more people realize is becoming a serious issue but very simple reason why Europe should be getting.

00:15:05: We know how prices went up when Ukraine invasion happened.

00:15:08: Uh, we know how price is one up with the Iran war.

00:15:12: But we can see within the EU Italy has highly dependent on gas and I saw something then.

00:15:18: The numbers are changing but Italians are paying many multiples of what people in Spain or playing for electricity.

00:15:25: And it's a very simple reason imported gas is very expensive.

00:15:29: It just went up another fifty percent since this war And countries that are investing in renewables and battery storage, uh Are paying less.

00:15:38: That's not going to change.

00:15:40: Um so as renewable prices come down and battery prices come Down gas prices continue Going up and very volatile.

00:15:48: I mean a Very simple reason for energy security, but for economic security.

00:15:55: The idea that the EU would be embracing LNG at this point instead of running away from it as quickly is a good... It's a poor economic choice.

00:16:05: It's horrendous climate choice.

00:16:08: and then there are just the energy security issues in volatility And its tough to run your industries on An input cost like LNG when it moves up and down so much.

00:16:21: And that's been a problem for European industry, So I think I'm looking forward.

00:16:28: James is going to talk a lot more about the impacts of venture global in the US.

00:16:32: but uh i think For now That's.

00:16:35: I think that's the economic picture which I think Is troubling?

00:16:40: And at some point More people understand The answer To the question.

00:16:45: what is the trick here?

00:16:47: Thank you.

00:16:51: Thank You very much Justin, and he already gave a perfect transition.

00:16:56: to James I just want to say it's like because we didn't say it explicitly at the beginning.

00:17:00: But when your global as i understood correctly in maybe mitches new can Just give in the beginning that little window here is the biggest if not one of the biggest Suppliers of LNG to do European market.

00:17:14: so thats why its important That The Company Is So Instable?

00:17:22: of the LNG market is dominated by this company.

00:17:25: And why this domination and these companies are also specifically problematic?

00:17:34: We will hear from James, James Hyatt he's from For A Better But You, that's the right title.

00:17:43: At least you found her a bit.

00:17:45: it is movement or local action movement in Louisiana and James as an expert climate resilience and he specializes in coastal science for resilience and community engagement.

00:17:57: listen Lake Charles Luziana says The Internet And He will report on the impact of gas export terminals and all things when your globalist doing In his state I guess beyond depending on how you watch the sea, James.

00:18:13: The Gulf of America right?

00:18:15: That's what we have to say.

00:18:15: Yeah, a Gulf of Mexico.

00:18:16: We will call it Gulf Of Mexico here in this presentation.

00:18:20: Thank you so much.

00:18:22: You cannot believe everything that is on the internet.

00:18:24: My name is James Hyde.

00:18:25: I'm a former oil and gas worker.

00:18:28: We used to work at a refinery And were are here in southwest Louisiana Which is on Texas border Is where Lake Charles is.

00:18:37: Um, let's see.

00:18:39: And I just wanted to start off by saying you know it's more than just economics what we're talking about the.

00:18:46: these companies use people's lives and livelihoods as externalities As things that do not fall into their accounting sheets.

00:18:53: The public health impacts, the premature death and suffering is always accompanying this dependency on fossil fuels.

00:19:01: From that from the moment it is extracted in Fracton West Texas along the compressor stations to the export facilities there is suffering in communities That does not show up on these balance sheets but shows up in people's lives.

00:19:15: This is aerial view of Kaukshu Pass Venture Global's Kaukeshu pass And you can see It is directly on the Calcutta River at the Gulf of Mexico.

00:19:28: I wanted to bring in a bit of climate, we are very familiar with hurricanes New Orleans, but we had on the same year.

00:19:47: Uh two thousand and five.

00:19:48: We had Hurricane Rita which destroyed much of Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana followed by Ike and Gustav and Barry and Delta and Zeta and Aida And Laura.

00:19:58: i can keep naming The storms that are coming because Of our collective dependency on fossil fuels and adding more and More greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

00:20:08: Which which drive?

00:20:08: The climate chaos That we Are seeing?

00:20:14: We are watching companies like venture global.

00:20:15: This is an aerial view of a satellite shot off the town of Cameron in Cameron Parish, you can see they already built Calcasieu Pass here this one that they sold their cargos for three years on spot market and made record profits.

00:20:32: while not honoring We have to understand they're building these in places where people have lived not only here In Southwest, Louisiana.

00:20:42: They are doing this in Texas as well and Corpus Christi Now there trying to build some in Brownsville and Freeport And Port Arthur and South of New Orleans.

00:20:53: and placements a built the plackaments LNG facility.

00:20:56: venture global has.

00:20:58: This is shot satellite shot from just a few weeks ago on May twelfth.

00:21:03: You can see the sprawling, they already existing couch you pass which is operating and this entire CP to.

00:21:11: This is their newest build that's going on, and if you take a note.

00:21:16: You can see these are people's houses.

00:21:18: this is where People have lived for generations all along here.

00:21:21: within Within half-a-mile of this facility There are people who are still living there And they're having to put up with the crazy construction in traffic while This Is Going On.

00:21:32: but this footprint right at The mouth Of A river Right Where Hurricanes literally came in.

00:21:38: twenty-twenty two hurricanes six weeks apart devastated this entire area and we're building the One of the causes of these climate chaos right in the path to the storm And besides they did be ongoing climate.

00:21:56: We also see sea level rise.

00:21:57: this is the mouth of that river and you can watch that beach erode from, from the very bottom of the screen as it moves all the way up.

00:22:04: we are losing land in Louisiana football field.

00:22:08: every ninety minutes is what they say.

00:22:10: uh... This Is Not Sustainable.

00:22:12: What We're Doing And-and we Are All Complicit Especially If We Switch Our Dependencies from Russian gas to European gas.

00:22:20: If we change one fossil fuel flavor, from coal to gas... We are still doing the same thing!

00:22:25: We're still extracting carbon from underground and adding it into atmosphere that is driving a planet that will be uninhabitable and unlivable.

00:22:35: I want speak about The other plants that are proposed and being built in southwest Louisiana, this one has a few old names.

00:22:45: They driftwood LNG had been bought out by an Australian company.

00:22:48: the name's have changed but We are seeing that a few small companies and a few people making profits hand over fist while they're inducing suffering, not only to the local livelihoods of fishermen or oystermen in causing public health concerns such as headaches nosebleeds and asthma.

00:23:11: Premature death and suffering miscarriages go up whenever there is fossil fuel infrastructure nearby where people are living.

00:23:20: One fact that we found in the compendium of LNG and fracking is that children who grow up near frack sites, which is where these gas comes from our two to three times more likely uh...to have leukemia Children having leukemia because of our dependency on fossil fuels.

00:23:38: We should get off this stuff as quickly As we can not just Because we care about The People Who Are Living Alongside This But Because It's Coming For Us Because Of Climate.

00:23:47: Chaos is coming for all of us.

00:23:50: This was a church built in Cameron Parish, it's the star-of-the-sea.

00:23:56: this is... The only they...The Church Was Destroyed In The Hurricanes In Twenty-Twenty.

00:24:01: but this monument Is Still There.

00:24:03: It Says Do Not Harm My Children.

00:24:04: She'S Pawning At The Mouth Of The River.

00:24:06: she Is Talking About Hurricanes Because In Nineteen Fifty Nine And Sixty Three We Had Hurricanes But It Wasn't For Sixty Years that we began having those, the string of hurricanes has started since two thousand five in this area.

00:24:20: I think she's not only pointing to... To-to th-the mouth of the river just saying let's not ha- Do not harm my children The storms but also each other!

00:24:28: The humans do NOT build something That causes such suffering In this place.

00:24:35: This is a mural on the shrimp house in Cameron Parish Where You know Twenty-five ten was a population in early nineteen eighties.

00:24:46: They were the largest shrimp house, The largest seafood producer in the United States.

00:24:54: But now that has been replaced by these LNG facilities We live on a river That is not like the month Mississippi.

00:25:01: we are not a mile wide where?

00:25:03: We're about fourteen hundred feet thousand meters wide.

00:25:06: this Cannot Cannot really move more than one ship at a time in one direction.

00:25:12: There's not enough room In this place and on top of that the creatures And to see the life that moves in an out-of.

00:25:20: these estuaries are dependent upon This pathway to the Gulf of Mexico, this was a ship.

00:25:26: our friend John Allaire took this picture back in twenty twenty three.

00:25:29: What what?

00:25:31: I don't know.

00:25:31: Moronic, oxymoronic thing to call an LNG tanker.

00:25:35: clean energy.

00:25:35: there's nothing clean about extracted carbon that is being frozen and piped and shipped across the ocean.

00:25:44: it is...the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels are driving with climate chaos we see.

00:25:53: i want just show you this too.

00:25:55: This state, Louisiana should be one of the richest states in the country.

00:25:59: But we have unfortunately been over backwards for corporations time and time again.

00:26:04: four decades to the point that Louisiana has the highest poverty rate In the wealthiest country That has ever existed.

00:26:11: We are the poorest State.

00:26:16: We are promised prosperity time and again, whether it's offshore oil or gas.

00:26:22: None of this comes to fruition.

00:26:24: there are not enough jobs that supported these people.

00:26:27: the lies of industry continue come out in our politicians continually been over backwards.

00:26:35: you may know him as a special envoy for Greenland but he is the governor who was in the pockets to seek to extract and maximize their profit margins.

00:26:49: I don't know how much time I have, probably running way over but i wanted the point out that these people who are being affected this was taken early last year In twenty-twenty five I went out oystering with these folks who were, Who live off of the water.

00:27:03: There's an oyster season or shrimp season crabs.

00:27:06: All this is abundant in this place.

00:27:08: We live in a sportsman's paradise.

00:27:10: The ecology here allows for quite A lot of biodiversity and supports massive amounts Of seafood.

00:27:17: Unfortunately the continued extraction And exploitation These companies have caused great harm.

00:27:23: Where there This picture has about thirty Oystermen.

00:27:27: The ships that come through on this small river send huge wakes and waves, they have flooded boats.

00:27:33: I invite you to visit golferizing.com if you want.

00:27:36: listen first hand experience of an horseman who had his boat sunk by a LNG tanker And this is what prosperity looks like.

00:27:44: In the foreground, you see a business of building that's been destroyed by hurricanes and not fixed?

00:27:50: Meanwhile here comes the Moran Gas Andrews which is transporting gas from Cameron LNG another export facility just up the river That went to Europe.

00:28:02: This gas went to europe.

00:28:04: meanwhile people in Cameron are still suffering.

00:28:07: In August of last year, Venture Global in their rush to hurry up and build their facility spilled mud.

00:28:16: directly outside of these contaminaries.

00:28:18: It's hard to see in this picture, but they were supposed be building marsh.

00:28:22: instead mud spilled out... This causeway and conveyance channel into the river is where the oystermen have farmed oysters on top of water that are floating all over this mud.

00:28:36: Some other oysters completely destroyed the oyster season last year.

00:28:41: They should have been able to oyster for a hundred and eighty days.

00:28:44: From September till April, they had eighteen days of oystering And eleven-and-a-half million farmed oysters were destroyed because this mud got out in caused conditions that wrecked the oysters.

00:28:56: This is what these muddy oysters... These are floating on top in cages!

00:28:59: They shouldn't have any mud on them And pockets of mud where found in the shells.

00:29:05: There's unmarkable people who cannot eat these.

00:29:08: On top of that harm, this is a pipeline for Delfin LNG which was an offshore LNG.

00:29:14: That exploded in February...February third!

00:29:18: This year just you know few months ago.

00:29:21: This is a jeep inside the hole where massive explosion happened.

00:29:27: All these are mad rush to get gas frat gas out to markets.

00:29:31: So the demand is real and so that's part of why I'm here, we are here because it is a supply issue but also a demand issue and we have got.

00:29:41: get off this addiction to fossil fuels.

00:29:44: Our home isn't a sacrifice coast.

00:29:47: This is fishermen who joined me outside an LNG conference in October last year To think that the wealthiest country has ever existed could actually regulate and enforce.

00:30:03: The laws are on, the books requires them to not be in the pockets of not beheld held hostage by lobbyists and corporate interests into actually put the people's interest ahead of everything.

00:30:15: I'll stop there.

00:30:15: my name is James Hyatt And feel free to follow us on Instagram or tiktok our youtuber whatever better buy you.

00:30:23: Thank You so much for coming this evening.

00:30:27: Thank you, James.

00:30:28: This was so immensely powerful!

00:30:32: Really really strong and I think this shows another light besides the economics what it actually causes for people on the ground in a community.

00:30:42: So thank-you very much For your work.

00:30:44: everyone who is involved In the community And doing the actions.

00:30:49: We are going to switch to German.

00:30:53: Let's continue with Julian Schwarzkopf Because what we saw now was the U.S side of things, let's look at the European side.

00:31:01: So Dmitriy Trotskov is team leader for the gas phaseout in Germany known also to take legal actions against venture global.

00:31:17: And they are very experienced and very knowledgeable.

00:31:20: so I'm excited to hear about Julian from the European Side And in general, how to deal with venture global and the European gas market?

00:31:30: In general, Julie.

00:31:31: Off you go!

00:31:35: Thank you also to James & Justin.

00:31:38: I hope you can all see my slides.

00:31:41: So today i'm going to talk about Venture Global from The European Point of View.

00:31:50: My title is Germany's most problematic energy supplier.

00:31:53: So just in order to give you a bit of a framework, let's look at gas imports into Germany and their development over time.

00:32:03: So Venture Global didn't used to be a gas supplier to Germany.

00:32:08: they only came on the scene a few years ago so twenty-twenty two.

00:32:13: there was this huge shift from Russian Gas gas from elsewhere after the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.

00:32:24: So for the first time we had these floating LNG terminals and more supplies via Belgium, Netherlands as well partially also LNG.

00:32:37: So it's delivered to Belgium or the Netherlands and then delivered by pipeline to Germany.

00:32:42: And also, a slew of new delivery supply contracts for LNG were concluded.

00:32:50: We're going see that here.

00:32:52: so you can see there is lots.

00:32:54: especially when we look at this last slide we can see that it's going to even increase, because German importers have contracted to buy all of this.

00:33:11: Most stupid comes from the

00:33:12: U.S.,

00:33:13: so more than ninety percent.

00:33:15: and in next few years Germany is trying get energy from other countries as well.

00:33:23: but The US is going to be the biggest supplier, it's gonna remain the bigger supply.

00:33:28: And if you look at the companies from the U S venture global has the largest share selling the biggest volumes.

00:33:37: two Germany.

00:33:37: so five million tons per year.

00:33:41: that's what they're going to sell.

00:33:43: a two Germany.

00:33:44: when this apply contracts actually start.

00:33:48: So You can see green at the bottom, so all of this is supposed to be venture global.

00:33:59: And we have E&BW and another major company Germany.

00:34:06: they have concluded these supply contracts in a few.

00:34:09: look at the totals The result is four hundred forty two billion cubic meters LNG.

00:34:18: And just for comparison, our annual gas consumption is about eighty billion cubic meter and decreasing a lot lower than for instance in twenty-twenty because we now have this energy crisis with Iran.

00:34:36: That's another reason to decrease gas consumption.

00:34:42: Sometimes we believe it feels like our government is forgetting about climate goals, but we still have them.

00:34:48: So if you look at the supply contracts with Venture Global then which can see that its mostly SEFE used to be Gazprom so a state owned company and then ENBW owned by Baden Württemberg, the federal state.

00:35:17: So they're really a publicly-owned company.

00:35:20: that means any problems with supplies is going to be a burden for tax payers.

00:35:27: and then look at supply terms of contracts you can see Some of them are supplied as opposed to expire only in twenty forty six.

00:35:41: There's a new contract with Glen farm even up until twenty forty nine.

00:35:47: the venture global contracts are supposed to expire on your twenty forty-six.

00:35:52: so that beyond our climate goal year twenty forty five and especially the fact these companies public contracts with this very problematic US company, that's not great.

00:36:11: Because we have public climate goals and such companies state owned companies are supposed to keep those into account but they don't seem.

00:36:32: But it's very similar for Germany.

00:36:34: So, it means that we have a massive oversupply of LNG.

00:36:38: That is going to happen.

00:36:40: Justin has said It will be a buyers market.

00:36:44: We're gonna have more gas than we can even consume.

00:36:49: Looking at our climate goals If you look these supply contracts and the pipeline deliveries And their own production in EU And then look at the EU Commission climate goal path.

00:37:06: That's the yellow line here, and this is a conservative scenario.

00:37:11: but even here we can see that we have a lot... Even now we have more gas than we need.

00:37:18: We're not going to need all those supply contracts.

00:37:21: So what's gonna happen?

00:37:23: Are we just getting rid of our climate goals or are we re-exporting the gas?

00:37:28: on a bias market.

00:37:29: that's going to be difficult and we're not gonna get a lot of money for it.

00:37:34: So, It is a problem because again tax payers are going to put the bill And... The result is a lock-in effect even now Because Of course We starting to build infrastructure On basis these long term contracts.

00:37:53: These are plans for Germany.

00:37:55: left-hand side, we can see the fossil gas demand for twenty thirty according to the German government and on right hand side.

00:38:06: We can see import capacity for LNG.

00:38:11: so you have six floating terminals that are already.

00:38:15: there is another six fixed terminals planned in Brunnsbüttelstade etc.

00:38:24: In comparison with the conservative projection of the German government, we have massive overcapacity.

00:38:32: So chartering floating terminals or securing the terminal in Brunsbüttel there are state agents for this.

00:38:42: so we have environmental effects on the spot noise air pollution noise pollution water pollution environmental nature protection zones around the terminal in Wilhelmshaven is supposed to be built.

00:38:59: In a Nature Protection area, so but apart from that it's also massive risk of having stranded assets at the end of all this and then on the other side of The Atlantic.

00:39:12: So when they US site its similar their building as well They already have massive export capacities.

00:39:19: But there being are supposed to be expanded, so you can see that it's a lot more.

00:39:26: This is about a lot less than just replacing Russian LNG deliveries.

00:39:31: The US government has massive major plans to export more oil and gas, more LNG shipmore basically And thats one of the reasons why the U.S Is really putting alot pressure on EU To keep concluding contracts for more and more.

00:39:53: So we have this unholy promise that the EU has made the US seven hundred fifty billion USD in addition, to buy energy from the U.S.. And the speaker accidentally said crime instead of promise then said well it was probably a Freudian mistake.

00:40:24: so We have the German Bank, Deutsche Bank and other major financial institutes.

00:40:36: You can see on right hand side there are ones supporting venture global so I don't really have time to tell you all about it but you can read for yourselves.

00:40:48: So a lot of german money being invested in this very harmful infrastructure on both sides of the Atlantic, sabotaging our climate goals.

00:41:00: So why is it such a problem?

00:41:03: James already mentioned the local effects, the climate effects and environmental effects of gas production because if you look at it, US LNG is even more harmful to the climate than LNG from other suppliers.

00:41:32: Because what we can see here below the line are CO² that's created when gas is burned also per billion cubic meter natural gas in this case.

00:41:52: So that's what is being reported in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

00:41:58: But this isn't a whole story because you also have to look at the entire chain, so CO-II emissions the fracking itself from transport logistics, that's a very energy intense process.

00:42:15: But also methane emissions direct gas being directly leaked into the atmosphere where it is eighty times more harmful to climate than CO₂ generated by.

00:42:30: So the US is doing a lot worse here.

00:42:34: The climate damage generated when they fly gases are higher than from other suppliers, so we used conservative figures by the International Energy Agency and estimates from environmental organizations on the right-hand side.

00:43:02: So maybe, that damage is going to be a lot higher than in the conservative figure of the left hand side.

00:43:07: and then we've seen effects in Texas and Louisiana even in US itself but also the methane emissions.

00:43:21: So this brings me to my last slide.

00:43:25: What are we doing against the DUH?

00:43:30: We're kind of known for submitting complaints, so in this case for Venture Global There's a lot of provisions for due diligence for companies.

00:43:55: They have to really check their whole, the entire delivery chain and this is not about climate effects but it's about human rights labor right local effect environmental effects air pollution around the export terminals water quality in the areas where fracking takes place, local environmental effects and labour protection.

00:44:26: because there are terrible working conditions when such terminals are built.

00:44:33: So in February, we've submitted an internal complaint to SEFE and ENBW Because you have to go into the companies themselves first.

00:44:45: that's the rule.

00:44:46: so We've done very detailed research And we submitted a thirty page complaint in order to document all of the infringements that we assumed or could even prove.

00:45:01: And, We didn't really expect them to act and they didn't.

00:45:04: so That was followed up by a formal complaint To The Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control.

00:45:10: They're responsible For actually enforcing.

00:45:16: LKSG also listed the kinds of complaints that are in this.

00:45:25: So, demand was that SEFE and ENBW were supposed to address these complains And we've now heard That processing time for our complaint is suppose be another year.

00:45:47: They have to come up with their medis, but we believe that within this office for economic affairs there is a delegated body of the Ministry of Economics and our Minister for Economics, Katarina Reichert wants to promote LNG.

00:46:09: So we believe that she's just a short staff the BAFA this office so they can't actually get through such complaints.

00:46:20: That is the state-of affairs with our complaint.

00:46:24: Some of you maybe have heard it from the media.

00:46:27: We have several, lodged several different legal actions against German LNG terminals.

00:46:32: just to give you one example for many we've won a lot.

00:46:37: so One of them that we want was an urgent procedure against destruction Of The National Reserve in Willemshafen.

00:46:47: I mean the main action hasn't been decided but the company Tess want to build one of Europe's largest LNG terminals in the middle-of a nature reserve, and we at least managed to put a stop to these building works as while the decision is being taken.

00:47:11: Wilhelm Hafen going through one of the main terminals for Venture Global Scouts to arrive in Germany.

00:47:18: Thank you for your attention and I'm looking forward to your question, And of course before that two anchors presentation or statement.

00:47:26: thank You That was very interesting.

00:47:31: We're getting more and more questions now So we have a lot of material for our Q&A later.

00:47:40: so You can ask your questions in Slido?

00:47:51: Speaker, Anka Esser.

00:47:53: She's a climate activist for the NGO Network Gas Vendor and she does a lot among other things.

00:48:02: She works on the Hama Climate Camp but Anka is going to explain that herself.

00:48:08: Anka do you have the floor?

00:48:14: Yeah right!

00:48:16: Thank you for having me here.

00:48:17: ten years now I've been a climate optimist And i'm not working in our project gas vendor, transition.

00:48:26: It did link to various communities.

00:48:29: for more than ten years now we've had an anti-gas movement and at the time what We managed is a ban on fracking And also CCR banned for long time.

00:48:47: For quite awhile people knew very little about you know, the issues with natural gas.

00:48:54: and what are the consequences?

00:48:55: What's the impact on climate?

00:48:58: This was underestimated.

00:49:00: So in my contribution let me explain where we are at the moment but I know what we do.

00:49:08: so Julian told us that his organisation does... ...the actors of Enlige Lende & Umwelthilfe have worked on this issue.

00:49:20: on natural gas.

00:49:21: it became very difficult because you heard it, the war of aggression against Ukraine making things very difficult.

00:49:30: And then in twenty-four we learned that international gas lobby was going to have a mega party at a noble hotel in Berlin.

00:49:41: so were not quite happy with this and various climate activists groups got together.

00:49:52: organization of days in the sense that, you know a counter gas summit.

00:49:57: We have workshops at seminars also.

00:49:59: Mr.

00:50:00: von Wenzel did then Secretary of State who was invited to The event and enough of indigenous and international players activists James as well And Andy were available and held workshop.

00:50:19: so there was major demonstration Aswell.

00:50:21: this is our banner banner of James Group.

00:50:24: He showed you on the slides and Endo Galendo, I'm a great fan of having a great variety of actors coming in with different formats off taking action.

00:50:39: we're at climate movements And we felt it was really important to have this Congress to summit.

00:50:45: now after the COVID pandemic It feels like let's start again Let's get going.

00:50:51: Also the counter movement against the use of gas in Germany.

00:50:56: And a gas lobby, they certainly saw what was happening outside and the Glenda and next generation have added their heart to just allow them a bit.

00:51:07: so phasing out natural gas companies accountable, so it has happened ever since twenty-twenty four is a great start at the time.

00:51:24: We have meetings to network we have strategic seminar and together we reflect on what kind of action we can take together.

00:51:34: but still actually you know building up our movement.

00:51:38: last year Harvard had number of measures of action against drilling especially in places where natural gas infrastructure, is perhaps planned and LNG terminals to be built.

00:51:54: And the drilling rigs.

00:52:00: of course at local level it's easier you get people up about into the streets.

00:52:05: this happened in Borkum on the island in the North Sea but also in the very south east of Germany.

00:52:10: This story I wrote along that just showed how it demonstrates.

00:52:15: so they make sense.

00:52:15: there are various actors joining hands.

00:52:18: There was a plan to start drilling in Bavaria, so Greenpeace and other the anti-fragging movement.

00:52:28: And Declimate Alliance against LNG got together... Ah!

00:52:32: Then it was said all of the eco terrorists are arriving.

00:52:35: that's what the company set for its future.

00:52:39: Sprout flowers and cake you know had peaceful demonstration convincing people on the ground as citizens initiative grassroots organization started in the community.

00:52:53: So we got more people on board, people decidedly saying that they do not want to produce gas here.

00:53:01: and Enigalinda which is our group linked with our group as well We were not in the news in terms of these are really bad climate activists etc.

00:53:13: so it's a very nice way working together violence free.

00:53:19: So what next?

00:53:23: Well, at our seminar we reflected on What narrative would could use.

00:53:31: so of course natural gas is expensive.

00:53:35: It makes the dependable on Putin and Trump So that people actually know it by heart.

00:53:43: You know its damaging to climate.

00:53:46: dirty.

00:53:47: And not just look at COT emissions but everything around us as well.

00:53:53: also The high risk.

00:54:00: We do talk about the high-risk technology.

00:54:03: It's a dirty solution, we want clean safe and renewable energy.

00:54:09: We want reliable or clean and affordable energy And also show other ways forward.

00:54:17: There is another thing that we noticed... ...we actually don't know but plans to expand natural gas infrastructure like terminals.

00:54:28: So a project was started together against gas.

00:54:34: The link is here, but I can post that in the chat.

00:54:38: Here's a map and there's a site on the campaign Together with the German Umwelthäuser Klima bündnis gegen LNG.

00:54:50: You'll find the framings And it also has an online map That invites you to ask the state so he could actually send an inquiry.

00:55:00: But what's happening where?

00:55:02: Is there any infrastructure planned in your region, etc.

00:55:05: So to generate more knowledge was the idea behind it and we wanted a printed map because this is what the past tortures.

00:55:13: that makes sense.

00:55:14: You know people just you know.

00:55:15: they did It very visible.

00:55:18: They see whats happening at their local level.

00:55:22: On the other hand We also want this digital map To keep it updated.

00:55:30: it's in German, but I think you could take a look anyhow.

00:55:33: It is not complicated and we have to add that We do NOT depict the complete picture of the German infrastructure on gas But its mainly the expansion Of this infrastructure.

00:55:47: Its also a symbol That you talked about The rush for gas Also in Germany.

00:55:55: This why were showing LNG terminals Mainly And repeated orange because it's a warning color, born due of danger.

00:56:04: Most dance and terminals are in orange And there is also way to say you can do something about it.

00:56:16: People see that In their region A new terminal will be built into the future.

00:56:21: So let's chat with my neighbour See what we could do.

00:56:24: We can set up another group.

00:56:28: Something else on the map demonstrated.

00:56:30: It was an eye-opener really, just like our action days against LNG.

00:56:40: Is that we want a moment of crystallization?

00:56:44: We wanted the place to get together as well.

00:56:47: so we were kind of reflecting where could we meet?

00:56:51: and we didn't think off the region or here in North Wind Westphalia.

00:56:55: but this map actually shows us what is happening there.

00:56:59: it's hot spot region.

00:57:05: the future LNG plans are built.

00:57:10: And now a few words on these so-called action days, it's just like the LNG Summit or against LNG summit.

00:57:20: we will have a camp workshops networking meetings panel discussions.

00:57:29: So you're very welcome to join here.

00:57:32: You can see today It is also called Hama Climate Camp.

00:57:39: It's the place called Ham, that is what this is about.

00:57:45: And Hammer?

00:57:46: it´s a hammer in German but also means real cool you know and something is Hummer.

00:57:50: so its like Riko.

00:57:51: So thats why we chose the name of the town as being a cool camp.

00:57:58: We have necessary infrastructure including demonstration plan trying to set world record.

00:58:07: The largest living windmill will be formed.

00:58:10: This is an action by people using their bodies to fight against climate change.

00:58:23: The group has carried out various actions, for example in white coats went down into coal mines.

00:58:42: coal has come about in Germany.

00:58:44: So what do we expect from the action days planned at the end of the month?

00:58:48: Now, first of all let me say that people on a local level feel motivated and they are happy to roll up their sleeves and join hands and join the actions.

00:59:00: nice!

00:59:02: And I also have to say that the area for the camp... We actually camped on the former coal mine areas, and that shows we can win a fight but also do not want to repeat mistakes made in the past.

00:59:21: We want to discourage people from keeping to use fossil fuels.

00:59:27: so data centers are also planned for the region or an aspect needing energy and electricity.

00:59:41: So we're in a phase of building trust as an movement or movements that went talking to each other very much before which made us lose trust.

00:59:52: We had anti-colonial groups, Germany for a long while and there was no discussion about natural gas.

01:00:01: And finally let me say I'm really exciting happy to see what's going to happen.

01:00:05: looking forward to those action days needs a lot of efforts, got a phasing out and I hope many of you are motivated to join hands with us.

01:00:21: Thank you so much Anka!

01:00:24: It was exciting that gave some insight into the movement and actions taken.

01:00:31: i think your starting tomorrow right?

01:00:32: it's day number one.

01:00:35: So yeah we have another half hours for questions doing this Q&A in English and I want to actually go through the question.

01:00:49: in a bid and actually now.

01:00:51: And start connecting with what Anka said, with what James said right?

01:00:56: So James you saw the picture of you and the blackout war on the demo here at Germany as well.

01:01:05: so I'm wondering like how is this situation for civil society or U-Movement for NGOs from Virginia, for example that protest against data center.

01:01:22: For example led to completely this that they basically voted out a whole council administration, right?

01:01:31: So is there also political movement that starts to be you know problem for state governments or council government.

01:01:41: Just give the question here as well so we'll see.

01:01:45: I'm just not making this up.

01:01:46: Marcus says follow money at senators and congress members from Louisiana all corrupt paid by these companies.

01:01:53: what about voters maybe connecting?

01:01:56: what is the situation of the resistance on the ground and how's that connected with, you know?

01:02:01: The political situation.

01:02:04: Yeah well I mean we are undergoing all kind of stuff.

01:02:06: in a moment there's a massive redistricting effort to basically take some power from more left areas.

01:02:14: also going on right now is a massive recall effort in Louisiana a very strong supporter of these LNGs and this carbon capture infrastructure that is being promoted here by the... fossil fuel industry.

01:02:34: There is power I think growing and people are upset because unfortunately, sometimes don't get involved until it affects them hit their wallet in our exporting of gas.

01:02:46: the data center demand for more gas infrastructure has caused electricity prices in Louisiana to go up as well And things aren't affordable.

01:02:57: this war in Iran This unjustifiable War in Iran The situation has exposed the government as working for the few, the ultra-wealthy.

01:03:14: people of very differing political ideologies together, because you know this government.

01:03:21: we're about to celebrate two hundred and fifty years of government by the People for The People We The People.

01:03:26: And in fact it's been run by corporations and moneyed interests uh...to the detriment of people..and so i-we are aligned.

01:03:34: I think the left and right our align on things.

01:03:39: We want clean air we want clean water.

01:03:41: We want a future for our children And we are tired of supporting multi-billion dollar companies who do not look For the interests of the people and only looked for their own in their own pockets.

01:03:51: Those those four things were aligned on.

01:03:53: we get into weeds when we start talking about culture war kind Of Things but The things that actually matter to most People Are Not Being Enacted by the government, and it is building A resistance To It.

01:04:04: as far As Recall Petitioning and These these We're in line with a lot of farther right folks against carbon capture, this false solution that will basically give more money to these fossil fuel companies to continue extracting and exploiting the way they have for decades.

01:04:23: I hope that answered your question?

01:04:29: Yes, thank you.

01:04:30: So maybe also pass it to Chaston as well because there's another question by Marcus incidentally just close together and James already mentioned that.

01:04:39: so Marcus asks again... One of the reasons for starting a war with Iran is to sell more US LNG gas at higher prices.

01:04:46: So Trump is not interested to stop the war with Iran, as long as the trade of humus is closed they can sell LNG at high prices.

01:04:55: So economic questions for you as well Justin.

01:04:59: so how do you view this?

01:05:03: In a short term that makes sense right!

01:05:05: The LNG companies and oil companies are profiting.

01:05:08: But one of the things that's happening within the conversation to people who follow LNG and talk about it, is they expect what has happened here.

01:05:18: That so many countries are realizing their reliant on this expensive imported fuel.

01:05:24: And honestly you're reliant upon what Donald Trump decides to do.

01:05:29: given day-to-day It isn't a very secure position.

01:05:33: The good news for climate The general consensus within energy analyst community is that long term this going to be bad for LNG because people are seeing not only it more expensive, the global energy system is transitioning right now.

01:05:55: And solar power in history produced more electricity with renewable.

01:06:03: I mean, that happened just very recently.

01:06:06: These are huge turning points in the global energy markets and while short-term what Trump is doing is benefiting those people who he brought into the room and said if you give me a billion dollars i'll do whatever you want.

01:06:18: um People are now realizing that uh China is importing less LNG.

01:06:23: Uh India was supposed to be a growth market they're importing less lng Um.

01:06:28: And so I think that uh The What Trump Is Doing And what he's done with this war and pushing fossil fuels on the world.

01:06:38: It was an approach that even in twenty-twenty two The fossil fuel fossil fuels were still the choice, the preferred choice.

01:06:46: now everyone is realizing they could use In India solar plus batteries is cheaper.

01:06:52: They don't have to rely any import.

01:06:53: So I think what's happening?

01:06:54: Is a James talked about the unaffordability is all about electricity costs and that if they power these data centers with gaspower, it's going to raise the price for everyone in US.

01:07:13: And I've been following U.S politics since George Bush was starting wars in Iraq.

01:07:20: This is the first issue where people on right or left are saying no And so I think it's a very interesting time where the fossil fuel industry is fighting really hard to control the markets and keep market dominance, but the economics of clean energy are just beating them.

01:07:44: Yeah thank you very much.

01:07:45: Anker has a hand!

01:07:52: About a month ago, we had a meeting.

01:08:09: Network activists and climate activists met in order to talk about this topic And on the Uncoming Climate Camp there will be various different workshops On that topic.

01:08:20: Then of course what is going to follow up During the climate camps during summer also going to be an important topic of discussion, but I think that we can really learn from what's happening in the US.

01:08:34: In terms of resistance.

01:08:35: so maybe we can exchange on that when if you will have some actions against it.

01:08:40: and just in general On the topics of renewables We still have to talk about renewables as well And now we're at the point where the fossil lobby has people in governments and so they make sure that their bodies are still safe.

01:09:10: So, in Germany gas plants power plants aren't really profitable either.

01:09:18: it's the most expensive choice.

01:09:20: but I think this is a question.

01:09:22: We never really promoted an alternative technology, and maybe now we have to talk about solutions more... ...and change our way of working a little bit.

01:09:35: I'll give you an example.

01:09:36: there's a project that we're working on.. ..and trying to work together with employees from the wind power sector because our energy minister which contacts to the gas lobby is trying to block renewable energies and unfortunately There's very few people working for wind power at the moment because the employees are not organized in a trade union.

01:10:04: So we're looking at helping them or getting organized with climate activists as well, so that's something were working on.

01:10:13: and maybe the question back to US James you've worked in energy industry do have similar connections?

01:10:27: Very interesting.

01:10:28: So I'm giving the question directly to James because now you're discussing among yourselves, i love that.

01:10:31: um so James how's with the workforce in the fossil fuel industry?

01:10:36: Do do you see start to see cracks there?

01:10:39: Yeah, I mean The reality is that There's not too many jobs anymore and oil and gas here They do employ a lot of people.

01:10:46: most my friends are working.

01:10:47: My brother-in-law actually took a job with venture global.

01:10:51: But the reality is like we have We Have A future.

01:10:55: That Part of it could be cleaning up the mess off the oil and gas industry.

01:10:59: And so people who are in this, we have all these abandoned wells but at upgrade our grid.

01:11:08: Our grid is far behind, right?

01:11:10: And so there's a lot of workforce development that could happen and you're not going to have the AI out there stringing up electricity poles in infrastructure needed IRA that the Biden administration had done.

01:11:31: is there was a lot of money to develop workforce and to give jobs, too.

01:11:36: To prepare us for transition.

01:11:38: um And you know as far as far As people do not love working For oil and gas as much as they'd loved being able pay their bills uh?

01:11:47: And if we provided opportunity in other places where They could provide for Their family Um, they would jump on That In A second.

01:11:55: I think.

01:11:58: just want to plug in here a webinar we did for the Germans audience actually, but I think you can also easy to translate this.

01:12:05: So there was a study here done in Germany by the last government, and now that new government actually didn't want to publish it or wanted to hide at the bit on basically the money regional communities can earn from renewable energy.

01:12:22: so because renewable energies are creating a lot of wealth and income for local communities right?

01:12:27: So I put that into chat in German but you know nowadays with AI or come in full circle.

01:12:35: So I want to go to James and to Julian, sorry.

01:12:39: And truly you get the top two questions here but already know that will answer them have also some thoughts on it as well actually.

01:12:47: so Ulrike asks can yellow LNG contracts be terminated before they normal expiry?

01:12:57: Or would there be punitive payments for any lost profit like that.

01:13:03: And then also the question, where are those long-term contracts coming from?

01:13:12: Many asking whether they're coming form the last government when the Greens were involved as one of three partners.

01:13:17: so maybe Julian can you talk to us about what's with the contract and how do we get out them?

01:13:32: Maybe also the question of overcapacity, because this is obviously an interesting political questions.

01:13:37: So Julian, maybe on a kind-of contract type things?

01:13:41: Yes I'm happy to so.

01:13:43: unfortunately these contracts can't easily be cancelled.

01:13:46: they usually include take or pay clauses which are exactly what their sound.

01:13:53: like you either Take The Entire LNG Volume Or You Pay.

01:13:58: Anyway how precisely the different contracts work isn't entirely clear because the contract themselves aren't public.

01:14:08: So a cancellation is usually only possible in specific cases that would have to be mentioned in the contract, so force majeure violation of the contract by one of the parties or indeed changed laws possibly.

01:14:28: So no, there can't be cancer easily in the context of venture global.

01:14:36: If the BAFA agency I mentioned before finds that these contracts violate Germany's supply chain law then potentially they could be a case.

01:14:49: but In general, this is what the lock-in effect means.

01:14:56: The German importers have entered into a contractual agreement to take these amounts off LNG and then if some of them go bust over it – the public ownership Federal state so low more local government then this also has implications obviously for tax payers and that's Extremely concerning.

01:15:29: They cannot ever usually be renegotiated.

01:15:32: So if the German Government makes a decision to basically Influence the companies that it has shares in um, To do that there is some leeway.

01:15:44: But overall This is precisely the lock-in effect that we see, also because these long term contracts are then used to justify LNG infrastructure.

01:15:56: So who did it?

01:15:59: The second question or which government rather I actually happen have the figures here govern social democrats.

01:16:18: about three hundred and sixty billion cubic meters of LNG contract volumes were passed under this government.

01:16:29: And to some extent the reaction at that time I would say is understandable.

01:16:35: we did have an unprecedented crisis with Russia's invasion, it was clearly necessary formerly Russian gas imports to other suppliers.

01:16:48: The European Commission at the time did an assessment of how much LNG infrastructure Germany would need, and they recommended two or three floating temporary LNG terminals.

01:17:00: The German government then at the time completely overreacted and passed an LNG acceleration law that included I think, at the times thirteen LNG terminals of which nine projects are still either already operating or in planning so much more than would have been needed.

01:17:23: maybe an additional scandal, I think is happening under the current government which says that this push for new LNG contracts are still ongoing.

01:17:31: So in its short time in office we've had three big LNG supply contracts totaling eighty-three billion cubic meters of LNG on top of the three hundred sixty that previously added together gives us a figure of four hundred forty two billion cubic meters that I mentioned in my presentation.

01:17:56: So it's both, but by now there is really no excuse for the current government to still be doing this.

01:18:04: Yeah thank you.

01:18:05: very important.

01:18:06: actually back in the day twenty thirteen when those contracts were negotiated we had Robert Harbeck the energy minister at time and this webinar nearly ten thousand people actually.

01:18:16: We talked about this and I still remember like there were two answers because we asked him obviously the same question, right?

01:18:22: So why not only build three but you built thirteen or then maybe nine?

01:18:27: so why have that over

01:18:29: capacity?".

01:18:29: And they were with two answers to it that he gave.

01:18:33: when I wonder what Julian and Andy and the others and Anka say This was also the chancellor, so the head of government pushing for this.

01:18:45: So those social democrats historically are more you know favor of gas and fossil fuel stuff.

01:18:52: And he said basically the Chancellor was also very much Much more cautious and wanted much over capacity.

01:18:59: that were reason one.

01:19:00: It's a bit deflecting on his part but it can still be true.

01:19:05: The other side is like look we're potentially in war with Russia right, so they and the attacks on critical infrastructure including pipelines.

01:19:14: North Streams II was just bombed I think a couple of weeks before we had the webinar or something around that.

01:19:21: So you need some overcapacity for resilience, because if Russia decides to bombard one or two pipelines or terminals you still need enough left.

01:19:29: So those are the two kind of arguments that were.

01:19:31: which is more like it's a political argument I think its harder to judge but in terms of resilience also so that when it comes to situation and don't want just rely on your gas delivery Hands hands first.

01:19:51: What do you think about that argument?

01:19:53: And do you see that argument for having a bit of overcapacity?

01:19:56: and how?

01:19:57: How much would you say you need is always we asking the same questions every how much over capacity?

01:20:02: So, of course it's very difficult question by Julian Yeah to To answer this.

01:20:08: so on your on your first point I would appoint.

01:20:10: I will definitely say It's true.

01:20:12: The Green Party left towards own devices certainly wouldn't have built up these overcapacities in terms of energy infrastructure and also, in terms supply contracts.

01:20:26: So yes the Social Democrats as a coalition partner and also the Liberal Democrats who were obviously very concerned about Germany's economy being able to continue to use fossil gas.

01:20:40: They definitely share a lot of the blame here, however Robert Harbeck was also responsible minister at that time and he did stand behind these plants and defend them publicly as well.

01:20:54: so I would say yes concede it is true but certainly do not want put all this on the Green Party now.

01:21:05: regarding kind of a safety buffer, I think yes.

01:21:14: A certain safety buffer is certainly wise but we also need the safety buffer for the climate and what haven't really talked about yet that you can do lot things actually to push down gas consumption even faster Getting late and then we are currently doing so.

01:21:38: almost all of the gas consumption that we have in Germany can already be replaced technologically.

01:21:45: this will not always be an economic.

01:21:48: Also, the regulatory framework conditions for this are getting worse.

01:21:53: But basically for power generation you have alternatives such as batteries plus renewables which can do a lot of what new gas power plants are supposed to be doing for security or supply.

01:22:08: For any heating that isn't really high temperature heating.

01:22:12: You have heat bumps run with renewables both in homes and an industry.

01:22:19: Yes, this isn't always easy but still there's a lot we can do to enlargen the safety buffer that we have.

01:22:29: if you look at the total import capacity I would say we certainly don't need to have twice the import capacity of what you are likely to be consuming in the thirties and forties.

01:22:50: that could be a bit like building an entire second heating system.

01:22:58: just isn't very, very economic.

01:23:02: A lot of this depends on subsidies as well and we need to spend tax dollars wisely because you can basically put them either into renewables that's part of the solution or you can say I really did a bit more security.

01:23:15: we put it in two gas but then you make the problem worse?

01:23:21: Yeah thank you at hand from anchor and then when going to do final round of questions right Thank You.

01:23:30: Just too.

01:23:32: add something on the climate.

01:23:34: Activists, I don't think it makes sense to extend the structure for fossil fuels or natural gas.

01:23:42: so the main issue is not the fact that in Germany and other United States people are empowered who say oh so how much gas will we need?

01:23:53: Let's go as little as possible.

01:23:55: but its' people who said they want keep building our infrastructure on the existing one.

01:24:02: And this is the approach that we criticized, renewable energy as most affordable and in certain regions looking at Ukraine for example to generate secure energy security.

01:24:22: you just have to carefully look what's the consequences?

01:24:26: We produce heat or electricity using natural gas.

01:24:30: so myself and the population, also what we heard from James.

01:24:38: It doesn't make sense.

01:24:39: it's unhealthy to keep importing these volumes of network gas that could be used as an alternative.

01:24:50: so I think we really should demand this infrastructure not based on other fuels.

01:24:58: Actually, we have discussed it here.

01:25:01: So Düsseldorf which is like the capital of the biggest state in Germany and we just are about to pass a new central heating law basically by twenty forty five there will be no gas infrastructure in that city anymore.

01:25:15: so its done for industry.

01:25:19: yes some Things are also moving on the legislative side, even if you have a federal government that is going in the other direction.

01:25:31: There's some positive lock-in effects as well.

01:25:33: so there's good news for movement to say.

01:25:36: I think it's always important and we should probably say everything.

01:25:40: we're talking about what Ankerl has been doing with Schemes' doing with Justin and Julian and what Andy was doing.

01:25:45: It's super important when they look back in the tenth, right?

01:25:49: In two thousand fifteen to sixteen.

01:25:51: The situation where we are now when terms of energy transition especially Europe but Germany would have been unthinkable and very much also the cost per unit for renewable energy.

01:26:03: So there's an enormous transformation going on, this is super important!

01:26:07: This has been pushed by civil society in that side of the Atlantic all over the place right?

01:26:15: We should never forget it even if like you know fights are getting harder.

01:26:19: they're getting harder because its last bits now so their getting in trouble legs of that fight or new face.

01:26:30: It's always to remember.

01:26:32: there have been successes for personal health, I think it is very important also.

01:26:36: Justin may be a hand and then was going through the question as well but we basically covered really well.

01:26:44: if you haven't seen anything else so just give Justin maybe the final word and close on time because i think Yeah, I just wanted to follow up on the last point you made which i think is critical.

01:26:57: Um...I've been doing this work since twenty fourteen and like you said what we have achieved uh would have been unthinkable in twenty fourteen.

01:27:05: but when we talk about LNG- I mean the the LNG industry these terminals can take five or ten years to build in tens of billions of dollars When they were making a decision to build some of these battery.

01:27:16: commercial battery storage was unaffordable.

01:27:18: You couldn't make a case for it.

01:27:20: The price for commercial utility scale batteries last year fell forty-five percent and it already had dropped a huge amount.

01:27:28: When I was looking at decarbonizing heavy trucking just five years ago, doing research on that we were talking about hydrogen And we're talking about LNG as being because batteries would never be affordable.

01:27:43: We'd have the energy density.

01:27:45: There's an article this morning.

01:27:49: they're going to be exporting their trucks to Europe, heavy trucks.

01:27:53: So we are decarbonizing heavy trucking with batteries and the cost of solar plus storage is cheaper in India so much cheaper than gas.

01:28:02: there's a lot more good news.

01:28:04: what do you need to get our policy makers to acknowledge that?

01:28:08: stop acting like its twenty fifteen perfect closing argument.

01:28:15: I would say Thank you so much.

01:28:16: That's exactly what we need to do, I think We played a part tonight and gave all of the information that is needed.

01:28:26: Please share this information with your family With.

01:28:34: friends will be putting it online And maybe they heard recording.

01:28:38: There was podcast.

01:28:39: So please share the information.

01:28:42: Many people know whats happening.

01:28:44: They can get their own picture.

01:28:47: We'll send the links.

01:28:48: Do come to Hamakamp or join The Action Days, what Anka said just a couple of seconds To get up and go against fossil energies And fight for climate change is all the same.

01:29:07: You know Anka has said that you don't have yourself on the runway.

01:29:17: that makes sense to you personally.

01:29:21: That's more you, and this is just a nice thing when we look at the picture of what's happening in the climate movement... You know?

01:29:28: Just share your video!

01:29:29: This is an act of activism.

01:29:32: It's kind of a donation of the movement as important.

01:29:36: There are many ways of joining it.

01:29:38: Having said this thank-you so much.

01:29:40: See again down next.

01:29:41: Your calling webinar will be back in two weeks time And We'll be discussing fascism.

01:29:49: We have to keep discussing it.

01:29:50: For any reasons, you'll soon receive the invitation.

01:29:54: So have a nice evening and thank you so much.

01:29:56: everybody Thank You.